Eastern Division:
1) New England: We correctly picked the Pats to capture the crown in the oh so weak AFC Eastern division last year, heck, they even one upped our projected regular season finish last year by posting a 12-4 mark and with a few breaks ended up making it to the AFC Championship game only to be ousted by eventual SB winner Peyton Manning and company.
The Patriots needed to upgrade their WR corps and they did just that by adding Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth, and Wes Welker to their roster via free agency which should bolster what was a really weak area last year, however, with Corey Dillon gone New England needs to find a backup RB for Laurence Maroney who enters this season fresh off shoulder surgery.
Defensively the Pats added Pro Bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas to their roster which should help a rushing D that allowed 114.3 yards per game on average last season, however, the threatened holdout by CB Asante Samuel and the injury to DB Chad Scott to an already suspect defensive secondary might James Taylor well prove to be the Pats Achilles heel. Projected record: 11-5
**Look to play AGAINST the Patriots on Oct 1st when they visit Cincy for a MNF get together, a look-see into the ole history book reveals that the Ben Gals have posted a mark of 7-1-1 ATS versus the Pats the last 9 times they have squared off and that includes covering 5 of their last 6 at home against the visiting Patriots, and oh by the way, this is a revenger for the Ben Gals who lost at home last year to New England by the embarrassing final score of 13-38 as 6 pt home favs, Cincy has a bye following this affair and should be extremely focused!
2) NY Jets: HC Eric Mangini worked wonders with the flyboys last year in somehow, someway, managing to win 10 games despite owning an offense ranked 25th and a defense ranked 20th in the league, the main reason for the success was due to his team being able to remain relatively healthy and that includes having past injury prone QB Chad Pennington on the field for the entire season.
Long time and future Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin decided to hang up his cleats for good which prompted the Jets to fill the vacancy with Thomas Jones. HC Mangini knows well that his team was very fortunate to win 10 games last year and elected to bolster the defense during the off season with the additions of David Bowens, Kenyon Coleman, Michael Haynes, and Andre Wadsworth. all four have the ability of playing at either the defensive end or outside linebacker positions which means Mangini could be planning on attacking opposing QB’s more often this season by installing more blitz packages, this is something to keep an eye on during the preseason. Projected record: 8-8
**Look to play AGAINST the Jets in their season opener at home against the visiting Patriots, a check backwards in time reveals that the Jets have failed to cover their past 8 straight home games against New England, as a matter of fact, the host in this divisional rivalry has failed to cover the posted number 14 of the past 16 times ATS against the visitor!
3) Miami: These phins are seemingly in a complete shambles, HC Nick Saban was brought aboard to right the ship but after posting a combined mark of 15-17 during his two year stint has gone back to the college ranks to coach the Crimson Tide of Alabama. Taking over the helm will be Cam Cameron who was the offensive coordinator at San Diego.
Cameron has more than his fair share of problems entering this season. At the top of the list is an aged Trent Green under center who will be handing the ball off to Ronnie Brown, this poses a problem because both players have been injury prone over the past couple of seasons and they must depend on a makeshift offensive line that will be a work in progress.
Miami’s defense has some star power with the likes of Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Joey Porter, Keith Traylor, and Vonnie Holliday but in truth each of these players are on the down side of their careers and figure to tucker out as the season progresses because the offense will not be able to give them any reprieve. Projected record: 6-10
**Look to play ON the Dolphins in their home opener against Dallas on 9/16/07, the phins will probably be installed as a home doggie or a small favorite and that suits us just fine because there is plenty of talent and pride on this phin team to play well in their home opener and Dallas will be coming to town in possible “let down” mode having just played their season opener at home against the divisional rival G-men and have a date on deck against the Bears who were the NFC’s Super Bowl representative last year, quotes you say “sandwich game”?
4) Buffalo: The Bills are now in full blown rebuild mode and especially on the defensive side of the ball after losing LB’s Takeo Spikes (Eagles), London Fletcher (Redskins), and CB Nate Clements (49ers) and now having to depend on youngsters like rookie linebacker Paul Posluszny (Penn State), second year safeties Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson, and LBs Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison.
On offense Buffalo will be looking to first round draft pick Marshawn Lynch (Cal) to fill the vacancy left by Willis McGahee at running back who is now wearing Raven purple. The Bills offensive line needs a lot of work and will try to find consistency with the additions of guard Derrick Dockery (Redskins) and tackle Langston Walker (Raiders). QB J.P. Losman has showed flashes of brilliance but if Buffalo wants him to improve on his career (four year) QB rating of 77.4 with a TD to INT ratio of 27 to 23, they will need to find him a receiver good enough to line up opposite Lee Evans and retool a line that allowed 47 sacks last year. Projected record: 4-12
** Look to play ON Buffalo on Sept. 16th when the Bills travel to Pittsburgh, with the public in mind we should be getting exceptional line value in this affair because the Steelers will have just taken Cleveland apart in their season opener and Denver will have probably done the same to Buffalo. The Bills performed well as a doggie last year in covering 7 of 10 ATS in this role and that includes covering at New England and at Miami last year to start the season while receiving +9.5 and +6.5 respectively, its also nice to know that according to the ole history book Buffalo has covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 games ATS during week 2 of a new season.
Jim Campbell runs http://www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past eight years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service.
Jim Campbell finished the final four weeks of the 2005 NFL regular season with a mark of 14-5-2 ATS coming down the stretch for a winning rate of 73.68% and for the season in the NFL he finished with an overall mark of 48-33-4 ATS for a winning rate of 59.26% and that includes a perfect mark of 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, Jim has posted a mark of 6-2 ATS over the past EIGHT years with his Super Bowl selection.